Berkeley, CA (April 18, 2024) – New estimates from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory show that plastic production emits as much carbon pollution (2.24 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) as 600 coal-fired power plants annually. This figure comes from a new independent report published by the lab today which was supported by funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies’ Beyond Petrochemicals campaign.

The report’s conclusion: Global carbon pollution from plastic production could triple by 2050. Even in scenarios where global power grids are decarbonized, this could increase the plastic industry’s share of carbon pollution from a little more than 5 percent today to more than 20 percent of our remaining carbon budget, assuming even the most modest estimates for industry growth. Industry analysts expect plastic production to at least double by 2050.

“Exponential growth of the plastics industry is undermining the world’s efforts to address climate change,” said Heather McTeer Toney, executive director, Beyond Petrochemicals. “Petrochemicals, the building block of plastic, are already poisoning communities that neighbor production facilities with cancer-causing pollution. The consequences of this industry’s unfettered carbon emissions will reach everyone on the planet.”

This transparent and comprehensive report will be an invaluable resource for delegates traveling to Ottawa, Canada next week for negotiations on the world’s first treaty to address plastic pollution. Organized by the United Nations Environment Program, the critical fourth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-4) will begin on April 23, 2024.

As the authors of the report state: “Currently, proposed efforts to reduce plastic pollution under the global plastics treaty do not yet include any explicit consideration of climate impacts. At the same time, there is limited recognition of the significant contributions of plastics production to climate change in the climate change-related negotiations.”

You can download the full report here. An executive summary is available here. Key takeaways from the report are highlighted in the bullets below.

Carbon Pollution Today

Global production of plastics generated 2.24 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2019, representing 5.3 percent of total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In comparison, the global aviation sector generated 60 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) emissions in 2019.

Global plastic production accounted for around 12 percent of global oil demand and about 8.5 percent of global natural gas demand in 2019.

Primary plastic production is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. As much as 70 percent of the fossil fuel used in production serves as raw materials for the petrochemicals that make plastic products. This suggests that future primary plastic production could still be heavily dependent on fossil fuels even if our energy system were decarbonized.

Approximately 75 percent of GHG emissions from plastics production occur from the steps prior to the phase of creating the polymers that form different plastic products. Fossil fuel extraction and the creation of monomers like ethylene are among the most carbon intensive steps.

The report specifically examines the GHG emissions of nine major types of polymers which are produced and consumed in the largest quantities. The creation of Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polypropylene (PP) are top of the list for carbon emissions among these polymers. They are used to create plastic packaging, including plastic water bottles, hot beverage containers, and various kinds of food packaging.

Undercutting Global Climate Efforts

Emissions from plastics production could reach 4.75 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 under an industry growth rate of 2.5 percent per year. That’s equal to the annual emissions of 1.1 billion gasoline-powered cars. (Plastic production has averaged a 3.6 percent growth rate since 2000.)

At 4 percent annual growth, emissions from plastics production could hit 6.78 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050. That’s equal to the emissions of more than 1700 coal plants.

If current production levels remain constant, in 2050 plastic production would account for 15-19 percent of the remaining global carbon budget to keep global average temperatures at 1.5°C.

Under a decarbonized power grid, at an industry growth rate of 2.5 percent, plastic production would account for 17-22 percent of the remaining global carbon budget to keep global average temperatures at 1.5°C.

Most plastic pollution mitigation strategies emphasized in the treaty process thus far (e.g., production reduction, elimination of problematic polymers, recycling, and alternative materials) could have different climate change implications, and should be rigorously investigated before a conclusion can be drawn.

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MEDIA CONTACT: Matt Smelser, [email protected]  

About Beyond Petrochemicals

Launched by Bloomberg Philanthropies in September 2022, Beyond Petrochemicals: People Over Pollution aims to halt the rapid expansion of petrochemical and plastic pollution in the United States. The campaign draws on the success of the Beyond Coal campaign, supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies, and Bloomberg’s Beyond Carbon campaign, to turbocharge existing efforts led by frontline communities to block the rapid expansion of 120+ petrochemical projects concentrated in three target geographies – Louisiana, Texas, and the Ohio River Valley. The campaign also works to establish stricter rules for existing petrochemical plants to safeguard the health of American communities. To date, Beyond Petrochemicals has helped raise awareness and lead timely collaboration efforts using its four pillars of community leadership, data and research, legislation and litigation, and stakeholder engagement to accelerate its goals. For more information, please visit us online and follow us on LinkedIn.